When will T Coronae Borealis next erupt as a nova? Constraints from recurrence, orbital phase, and accretion-state evolution
T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) is the nearest symbiotic recurrent nova and is now intensively monitored for its next eruption. We combine three constraints on the eruption time: historical recurrence, orbital phase, and recent accretion-state evolution. Conditioning on no eruption by 2026 July 11, the three effective historical intervals give illustrative survival-conditioned probabilities of 30.2\% for the rest of 2026 and 56.9\% within the following year; these are empirical indicators, not physic…